Weekly Indicators: Post-Tariff Trends Continue

Summary

• Long leading and short leading indicators remain neutral, as monetary/financial positives offset housing and yield spread weaknesses, with corporate profits estimated to decline again for Q2.
• Coincident indicators remain very positive, despite some fading in nominal consumer spending, signaling resilience in the current economic environment.
• Commodity and stock price improvements are balanced by lower gas usage and a recent spike in gas prices, while the U.S. dollar has declined.
• I am closely watching the impact of recent tariff increases on corporate profits, consumer spending, and potential effects on layoffs and jobless claims.

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Purpose

I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly

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