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September Momentum Builds- Trend Forming?

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Global equity trade moved off support and allowed the Usd to lose ground in the latest session of trade. If S/P 500 holds 1095 both Gbp and Eur will make moves against the Usd.

Oil trade holding 73.50 support will allow Cad and Aud to appreciate, with Treasury yields moving lower allowing Chf and Jpy to move against the Usd.

Daily chart Simple Moving Averages are dominating all markets at the moment, and creating volatility.
Eur/Usd- Best moves at 2am and 7am ET. Daily range 130 pips. RSI is short. SMA is @ 1.2800. 12-month 90% correlation to Oil moves. Trading at the 100-day SMA in volatile fashion. Holding a tight channel, with a weak 4-hour chart overall outlook. 1.2850 resistance and 1.2650 support, with noise at 1.2750.

Gbp/Usd- Best moves between 8pm and 7am ET. Daily range 140 pips. RSI is neutral. 200 SMA is @ 1.5450. 12-month -89% correlation to VIX moves. Trading in tight ranges with a positive outlook. Take care here; the pair has found fair value ahead of the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday. 1.5550 resistance and 1.5390 support, with noise at 1.5430. 

Aud/Usd- Best moves between 8pm and 6am ET. Daily trading range is 100 pips. RSI is neutral. SMA is @ 0.08950. 12-month 96% correlation to Oil moves. Red-flag economic releases are all that is impacting the pair; outside of reactions to volatile bursts of energy the pair is treading water. 0.9230 resistance and 0.9080 support, with noise at 0.9150. 

Usd/Cad- Best moves after 2am ET. Daily range is 100 pips. RSI is long. SMA is @ 1.0400. 12-month 95% correlation to Oil moves. Weak looking daily chart, sideways 4-hour chart, and sporadic 30-min chart moves trading daily chart SMA areas that will need to absorb an interest rate increase. 1.0490 resistance and 1.0290 support, with noise at 1.0420. 

Usd/Chf- Best moves after 3am ET. Daily range 130 pips. RSI is neutral. SMA is @ 1.0480. 12-month 93% inverse correlation to S&P and Oil moves. Looking for a near-term long reversal off any failed short tests of 1.0050 as the market locks the pair into daily yield-market reactions. 1.0240 resistance and 1.0050 support, with noise at 1.0200.

Usd/Jpy- Best moves after 8pm ET. U/J RSI is short. U/J 12-month 69% inverses correlation to Gold moves. E/J and G/J will move hard when U/J finds momentum. Tracking lower with slowing momentum. There is room to move up to 84.50 or down to 82.00, both will be hard-fought in the near-term. 84.50 resistance and 83.20 support, with noise at 83.90.

Dollar Index- The high 90%+ inverse correlation between S/P futures and the Usd was in play in mid-week trade as the dollar was sold in-line with equities finding buyers. The 50-day SMA area at 82.70 will be upside resistance, and as long as S/P trade holds 1095 support traders will favor short-Usd plays. Short set-up that favors banking at Target 2.

S&P Futures- Equity traders took their cue from the German Dax in mid-week trade and moved higher in-line with an oversold bounce on S/P futures. Look for support on the Japanese Nikkei at 9100, support on the German Dax at the 50 day-SMA 6100, while S/P futures try to hold the 100-day SMA at 1095. These are pivotal price points that will determine weekly chart momentum with a close above or below. Straddle set-up to T1 short or long to T2.

Crude Oil- Speculative interest has increased as the global yield starvation forces traders to examine any market that may potentially have better risk/reward than Treasuries. Holding the 200-day SMA at 74.20 maintains a bullish outlook for crude oil, although trading ranges will be tight. Straddle set-up to T1 short or long to T2.

Gold Bullion-The need to hedge the Usd moves has allowed gold trade to stake a claim to be a stand-alone asset class that seems to have few peers when global expansion is in doubt. Look to buy the dips and then favor the Long trade plan targets.






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