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Weekly SP-500 Market Trend Commentary - September 4, 2010

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), SPY

*** Status: Market Bullish - Sector Positions or Bonds ***

The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at 61 indicating Market Up. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are mixed indicating a neutral market. As seen at the right the CCI(53) indicator is positive for all the four major indices.  It is interesting to note that with this market move up we are actually seeing a replacement of the bond funds at the top of the rankings with other sectors such as telecom, utilities, and internet. So maybe that is an indication of a true shift in overall market trend. There are several changes to the model portfolios. While we need to be wary of a sideways market, these sectors maybe indicating a true shift to an upward trend. Time will tell as always. The SP-500 is now above the 50 and 200 EMAs, but can still be classified as range bound. We'll have to see if the resistance at ~1120 can be broken this time around.


This week's Rankings show a definite transition from bond funds to other sectors which maybe indicating a substantial shift in market character. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.


Sell SWLBX, SWBDX, and GVPIX in the Schwab Portfolio.

Buy TCPIX, INPIX, and UTPIX in the Schwab Portfolio.

Sell BIV, VCIT, and BND in the Vanguard Portfolio.

Buy VOX, VPU, and VNQ in the Vanguard Portfolio

Model portfolios are listed here.

Performance (NOT including dividends):

Vanguard Model Portfolio: 0.87%  [SPY: 3.59%]

Schwab Model Portfolio: -0.94%  [SPY: 3.36%]


Positions in SWLBX and SWBDX at the time of this post.

What others are saying (all free sites): Overall Mixed/Neutral

Barchart: 8% Buy

Bulkowski: Bullish (shorter term signal CPI=98.8%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Sell Signal

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

My Trading System: Down Trend

Stock TA (NYSEARCA:SPY): Neutral

Stock TrendsBearish

Winning Investing: Condition Red - Use Caution

Wishing Wealth: Down Trend - Close to Uptrend Cash (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart  September 4, 2010
SP-500 Daily Chart September 4, 2010
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart  September 4, 2010
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart September 4, 2010

Disclosure: Positions in SWLBX and SWBDX at the time of this post.